That makes for a worrisome trade and national security scenario in the next five years because it is likely to benefit China drastically, according to Lloyd's List :
However, the authors believe China, which has as taken enormous trouble to guarantee long-term sources of raw materials and plan its expansion of steel production and shipbuilding capacity, is likely to take a different approach.
"In the face of the same factors of cancellation and non-payment, China is likely to continue building vessels on schedule through 2009-2012, but now for its own account.
"As its national fleet grows, it will give preference to its own vessels against tonnage chartered from the free market."
As a result, they believe it is quite possible China will control, directly or indirectly, more than a third of the world's dry cargo fleet by 2012.
China could then use its muscle to dominate free markets to the nation's own advantage which, in turn, could provoke a response by the US, the European Union, Russia and India.
"In the face of the same factors of cancellation and non-payment, China is likely to continue building vessels on schedule through 2009-2012, but now for its own account.
"As its national fleet grows, it will give preference to its own vessels against tonnage chartered from the free market."
As a result, they believe it is quite possible China will control, directly or indirectly, more than a third of the world's dry cargo fleet by 2012.
China could then use its muscle to dominate free markets to the nation's own advantage which, in turn, could provoke a response by the US, the European Union, Russia and India.
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