11.02.2008

Could Louisiana Flip for Obama?

This paints the race as far closer here than any other indicator has shown. 
 
Frankly, it would surprise me (and the sample size is rather small). But is the dynamic changing here in the end, as it seems to be based on trendlines in other red states?
 
While outstate Republicans, by recent tradition, go decidedly Republican, it's worth looking at what else is on the ballot.
 
A weak Kennedy faces popular moderate Democrat Mary Landrieu in the Senate race.  Jindal is not on the ballot.  A vigorous DA race here in NOLA and the 2nd Congressional race between Jefferson and Moreno could stir up sizable urban turnout.  And Obama's racial appeal has no parallel or precedent in New Orleans when it comes to a presidential election.
 
I see the 1st Congressional race between Scalise and Harlan as an overall neutral effect on the Presidential race.  While I'm not well apprised of the situation north and west, only the State Supreme Court race in the greater NOLA area seems to have any meaningful prospect of motivating conservative voters that would incidentally impact the race in favor of McCain.
 
I think McCain, in the end, will take the state by a distinguishable margin, something between 6% and 10%.  That's despite a polling trend (again, with rather small sampling sizes) that has shown consistent double digit point leads for McCain here through the fall.  I keep the Cazayoux special election win in mind when making that prediction.